Call me butter because I am on a ROLL! It was a perfect three from three picks last week, netting almost five units of value in profit although I needed a bit of last minute garbage fourth quarter scoring to get the Texans/Jags bet across the line. With an early Seahawks win last night I have already started the NFL week on a good note, but let's see if we can increase the P/L base for all you following along at home.
Some teams showed a few cracks in the foundation last week, and others continued to get healthy and stronger. A few *must win* games for teams with playoff expectations that have not delivered to this point. How will they fare this week? Onto the picks!
Second 3pt weighting of the year. In Luck we trust, not ridiculous fake punts that don't work. The Colts' botched effort against New England doesn't quite rank on the bad play scale of 'hand it to Beast Mode on the one yard line to win the Super Bowl', but it comes close. Due to the loss last week, this game becomes a make or break game for the Colts. Drew Brees and the boys circled the wagons at home last week, and their secondary is showing signs of improvement but the entire Indy Offense is healthy and in desperate need of a win. Look for the game to be close until the fourth quarter, when Indy puts some real pressure on the Saints and they eventually lose by a touchdown or more. Sneaky side bet - Indy might score 40 this game so bet OVER on Indy's total points !
It pains me to say that but the Patriots are the best team in the league. However, the Jets are a much improved team and have their defense healthy again. The Dallas Cowboys showed how you can get to Brady and disrupt him just enough. A few weapons in NE are banged-up which might present some challenges against the improved Jets. They should be able to control the ball a bit and keep the game close. Last year the Jets were within a touchdown all game, then giving up a pick-6 to lose by 11 on the last play; that shouldn't happen this time around. Side note, look for Gronk to have a doozy of a game from a Fantasy perspective as Derrell Revis keeps the NE WR corps quiet.
Tampa Bay can score, the Washington defense is banged up a bit, and TB cannot stop anyone from scoring on them. Hope you like touchdowns because they will be served up hot in this game. Tampa Bay also comes out of the bye week with Winston and Mike Evans having some time to work on their chemistry. Look for an explosion of scoring as Vincent Jackson is back to keep Washington honest in the secondary. These teams aren't particularly dominating but they should be able to put up more than 43 points between them. Keep an eye on the weather and field conditions here, though. As mentioned previously in my Week 3 column, FedEx field in Washington DC can get sloppy, hindering scoring.
Bart's 2015 NFL P&L
Staked – 28pts
Returned – 44.73pts
P&L – +16.73pts